Who Won The VP Debate Last Night? Here’s What Snap Polls And Betting Markets Say.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator J.D. Vance had a mostly polite and policy-focused debate for vice president on Tuesday night. Some described it as having a “Midwestern nice” tone, but people who placed bets and those who were polled thought the Republican candidate, Vance, won over the Democratic candidate, Walz.

Key Points:

  • CBS News, which hosted the debate, did a quick poll afterward. In it, 42% of viewers thought Vance won, 41% said Walz did better, and 17% saw it as a tie.
  • The CBS poll showed both candidates became more popular after the debate. Vance’s favorability rose from 40% to 49%, and Walz’s from 52% to 60%.
  • CNN also conducted a poll after the debate. It showed Vance narrowly beating Walz, 51% to 49%.
  • In CNN’s poll, both candidates’ popularity increased. Walz’s favorability went from 46% to 59%, and Vance’s from 30% to 41%.

How Did the Betting Markets React?

Betting markets saw Vance as the winner of the debate. On the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, bettors believed Vance had a 73% chance of being seen as the debate winner in post-debate polls, while Walz had a 27% chance. This was a big shift from before the debate when bettors gave Walz a 70% chance of winning.

Tangent

Bookmakers in the election betting markets slightly increased former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning on Tuesday, mainly due to favorable polls in Georgia and North Carolina before the debate. However, Vice President Kamala Harris still holds a small lead, with bookmakers giving her a 50.3% chance of winning in November, compared to Trump’s 48.9%.

Published: 2nd October 2024

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